The state senate races are starting to take shape in West Virginia for the 2016 election cycle. The Democratic party starts with a severe handicap thanks to a record low voter turnout (32%) and the subsequent wave of Republicans elected to the state legislature during the 2014 midterm election. As a result, the party must win 12 of the 18 seats up for election this year to take back the senate, while the Republicans only need to win 8 to retain control.
The map looks even more grim for the Democrats when taking incumbency into consideration. Seven incumbents for both parties are running for reelection. That leaves four open seats in contention. Three of those seats are being vacated by Democrats who are tired of the divisive nature of the new Republican majority. Only one seat is being vacated by a Republican. That means the Democratic Party will have to win every one of their incumbent seats as well as all open seats in order to take back the majority. On the other side of the aisle, Republicans only need to pick up one of those open seats to retain control.
There are a couple of factors that could play heavily into state elections that favor the left. The Democratic Party still holds a distinct advantage in registered voters. Statewide, Democrats make up 48% of registered voters as of December 2015. Republicans can claim only 29%. When voter turnout is high, the Democrats have a strong advantage. There is reason to believe that voter turnout will be particularly high in 2016. First, it is a presidential election year, which generally boosts state turnout by 19%. Second, the enthusiasm generated on the left by Hillary Clinton and especially Bernie Sanders has given local Democrats hope. One candidate for the House of Delegates told me recently that she hasn’t seen this kind of enthusiasm for local politics in a long time. Third, the end of Obama’s presidential term means that his name will no longer be a drag on the ticket in WV. State politicians have made much on a non-existent “War on Coal” that they blame on the Obama administration, depressing Democratic turnout and boosting that of the Republicans.
But perhaps most important is the controversy surrounding the 2016 legislative session. After taking over both houses for the first time in more than 80 years, the Republicans immediately set out to enact their anti-labor agenda. They are pushing Right-to-Work through the legislature, repealing the Prevailing Wage, and rolling back safety regulations as we speak. The WVGOP has awakened a sleeping giant and the backlash has been tremendous. The union movement is experiencing a resurgence of activism. Thousands of people crowded into the state capital grounds to protest the attack on the working class during the last two sessions. Unions will likely take an active role in turning out blue voters in 2016.
Races to Watch
WV Sen-02: (open seat)
District 2 is wide open at this point. Sen. Jeff Kessler (D) opted to run for Governor instead of keeping his senate seat. The Democratic Party has yet to find a viable candidate to run with just four days until the filing deadline. Kessler’s brother was rumored to be mulling over a run late last fall. Some conservative pundits have raised the specter of a Republican takeover in this heavily Democratic district, but their search did not yield any strong candidates. Two unknowns are vying for the nomination - Mike Maroney and Ginger Nalley. Expect this seat to stay blue, assuming that a Democratic candidate files before January 31st.
WV Sen-03: (unexpired term)
David Nohe (R) retired in 2015 to take a position on the Parole Board. Sen. Bob Ashley (R) was appointed in his place. The last two years of the unexpired term will be up for election in 2016. Ashley is running for reelection, carrying with him 29 years of experience in the House of Delegates and 4 years as the House Minority leader. He will be heavily funded by the state party that is finally able to compete statewide. Although he has a long career in politics, Ashley is at a slight disadvantage because the district typically elects someone from the higher populated Wood County, home of the fourth largest city in the state. Gregory K. Smith (D) of Parkersburg will be the challenger. He comes from a strong labor background and his focus on defending the prevailing wage will be a test-case for the resurgent union movement in the state. District 3 is part of the rust belt, whose history is tied to strong union support and blue-collar workers. This seat will end up being much closer than anyone is anticipating at this time.
WV Sen-09:
Democrats all around the state are still fuming over the betrayal of the ninth senatorial district by notorious party-hopper Daniel Hall (R) (D) (R). Hall was elected to the seat as a Democrat, then left the party three days after the 2014 election to hand over control of the senate to his new party. He was awarded with the position of Majority Whip. However, he retired from the seat at the beginning of 2016 to take a lobbying position with the NRA. Now his old seat is unexpectedly wide open and the Democrats smell blood. Wyoming County Clerk Mike Goode (D) has thrown his hat into the ring. Sen. Sue Cline (R) will spend the election cycle defending her appointment to Hall’s seat. This is projected to be a heated contest.
WV Sen-11:
This seat is currently occupied by Delegate Greg Boso (R), who was appointed in 2015 to fill the vacancy left by Clark Barnes (R), who took a position as Senate Clerk. This year will be Boso’s first election test. The Democratic Party sees WVSen-11 as a potential pick-up, while GOP is confident that the district is strongly trending Republican. Typically blue, this district has gone red during the last two statewide elections, causing then-incumbent Greg Tucker (D) to lose his seat in 2014. Three-term Delegate Denise Campbell (D) has stepped up to the challenge. Coming from the most heavily populated section of the district, she hopes to become the second woman sitting in the senate. She may be the favorite in the race, since she has consistently finished in first place every year in her multi-delegate district.
WV Sen-16: (open seat)
Incumbent Sen. Herb Snyder (D) announced that he would not seek reelection to another term. He instead chose to run for Jefferson County Clerk, citing too much time away from his home county. Two-term Delegate Stephen Skinner (D) jumped into the race immediately as the establishment favorite. Skinner was elected in 2012 as the first openly gay state legislator in WV. In a repeat of the 2014 House election, he and tea party activist Patricia Rucker (R) could again face off if they both win their respective primaries. Skinner squeaked by last time by just 133 votes during the 2014 GOP wave. David Manthos (D) joined the race last fall and represents the progressive wing of the party. He is a community organizer and served as the president of the Eastern Panhandle Young Democrats. This district is close to the suburbs of D.C. and leans heavily Democratic. The big contest here will be in the Democratic primary.