Hi. Long time lurker but it’s my first diary here. I would like to make a series that demonstrates how districts would look like come 2020 redistricting. As usual, I drew the maps using Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) and is based on the 2018 census data.
The following in decreasing priority is the criteria I imposed when I drew the maps:
1. Districts should be virtually equal in population, compact, contiguous, and free of holes.
2. Create VRA districts (majority-minority districts or if such will not be reasonably compact, minority-influence districts).
3. Respect communities of interest.
4. Adhere to political subdivisions. Follow county lines, and as far as practicable, municipal lines. Minimize county splits. A county smaller than a district shall not be split between more than two districts. There should be a commensurate number of districts wholly within a county if a county can accommodate within its boundaries a whole district or more. This should not be a problem in New England, West Virginia, and Iowa.
Consideration of partisan data is prohibited except where required by federal law, as is favoring, or disfavoring an incumbent, candidate for office, or political party. However, since this is a political website, I would discuss current partisan data but only limited to Partisan Voting Index and 2016 Presidential election results or if already available, 2020 Presidential election results. For disclosure, I would also include DRA’s Analytics Ratings which would be based on PVI unless otherwise stated.
If the current partisan outlook of the map seems to be unfavorable to you, then I’m sorry but I’m not bulging. Don’t cry bloody “Matthismander” or “Judicialmander”, as if partisan maps would be fair. Please remember that coalitions do change and gerrymander could backfire and turn out to be dummymander. But, if you think there could be a way of drawing districts that better reflect communities of interest while following my other criteria, then let’s have a healthy discussion about that.
While I retained the district numbers as per norm, I also gave names to the districts. This is like the system employed in many other national legislatures. I always said to myself while mapping that “If I can’t name it, I won’t do it”. I aspire that people could easily identify their own district and as a result, readily know who is their representative. This will give them a better sense of belonging and accountability. You can suggest better names for the districts.
I have already made maps for all states with at least two districts. However, I would discuss maps by region, starting with the one with the most chronic gerrymandering problems. So, I will start with the South. As a primer, I would discuss for now DE, MD, VA, and WV.
DELAWARE
DE-AL: Delaware
This district covers the whole state of Delaware. It is 63% white and 24% black. It has a PVI of D+6 and it voted for Clinton 52-40. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Rochester), is on the edge of being safe for reelection. Safe D.
MARYLAND
Maryland retains its eight districts. The state is 51% white and 32% black. It has a PVI of D+12 and it voted for Clinton 60-34.
MD-01: Maryland eastern shore
This district covers the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay and exurban Baltimore. It is 76% white and 17% black. It has a PVI of R+12 and it voted for Trump 58-36. Andy Harris (R-Cockeysville) lives just outside this district but will be safe here. Safe R.
MD-02: Baltimore County
This district is almost equivalent to Baltimore County. It is 56% white and 32% black. With a PVI of D+10, it voted for Clinton 58-36. As a testament to how much gerrymandered Maryland is, this district is home to three representatives: Andy Harris, Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville), and John Sarbanes (D-Towson). Dutch Ruppersberger may have more clout here as he has more seniority and is the former Baltimore CE. However, as a septuagenarian, he may also retire and let Sarbanes run here instead. Safe D.
MD-03: Anne Arundel and Howard
This district is based on Anne Arundel and Howard counties. The district is the location of the state capital, Annapolis, and the United States Naval Academy. Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Edgewater) is from here. It is 63% white and 20% black. It has a PVI of D+6 and it voted for Clinton 55-37. John Sarbanes may follow many of his constituents and run here or this could be an open seat. Safe D.
MD-04: Prince George’s
This diverse district is in the northern half of Prince George’s County with border communities from Montgomery. The flagship campus of the University of Maryland is here at College Park. It is 46% black, 24% Hispanic, and 23% white. It has a PVI of D+36 and it overwhelmingly voted for Clinton 84-11. Anthony Brown (D-Bowie) and Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) both live here. However, Rakin is more likely to run in MD-08. Brown would have very safe general reelections here. Safe D.
MD-05: southern Maryland
This black-majority district covers the southern half of Prince George’s County and the rest of southern Maryland. It is 57% black and 33% black. It has a PVI of D+23 and it voted for Clinton 70-26. Octogenarian House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville) would be very vulnerable to a black primary challenger if he doesn’t retire and instead run for reelection. Safe D.
MD-06: western Maryland
This district is revived and it covers areas outside of the immediate Washington-Baltimore urban area. It is 86% white and it has a PVI of R+11. It voted for Trump 56-37. A Republican politician who wins his or her primaries here will be safe for the general election. Safe R.
MD-07: Baltimore (city)
This black-majority district corresponds to the city of Baltimore with areas to the south towards BWI Airport added to balance population. It is home to Johns Hopkins. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Baltimore) lives here. It is 56% black and 35% white. It has a PVI of D+30 and it voted for Clinton 77-11. Returning Representative Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) would be safe here. Safe D.
MD-08: Montgomery
This affluent district covers most of Montgomery County. It is majority-minority at 47% white, 29% Hispanic, 18% Asian, and 16% black. With a PVI of D+23, it voted for Clinton 74-20. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Kensington) lives here. David Trone (D-Potomac) is residing in the district. However, Trone is said to be considering running for governor in 2022 instead and it is more likely that Raskin is the one that will run here. Safe D.
MD DRA Analytics Ratings:
Proportionality: 100. Splitting: 73, Compactness: 57, Minority: 100, Competitiveness: 3.
VIRGINIA
Virginia will still have 11 districts. The state is 62% white and 21% black. It has a PVI of D+1 and it voted for Clinton 50-44.
VA-01: eastern Virginia
This district covers Virginia’s necks and peninsulas around the Chesapeake Bay. This historical constituency, also dubbed America’s First District, includes America’s first settlement, Jamestown, George Washington’s birthplace, Westmoreland County, Yorktown, and the former state capital, Williamsburg. William and Mary is based here. Gov. Ralph Northam (D–Capeville) is a constituent of this district. The district is 72% White and 20% Black. It has a PVI of R+10 and Trump won it 57-38. Incumbent Rob Whitman (R–Montross) is safe for reelection. Safe R.
VA-02: Hampton Roads
This majority-minority district covers much of the Hampton Roads metropolitan area outside of Virginia Beach. Included in this district are Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News, Hampton, Poquoson, and urban areas of Chesapeake. The district is 47% Black and 43% White. It has a PVI of D+16 and Clinton carried it 63-31. Three-decade incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott (D–Newport News) lives here although as a septuagenarian, he may also consider retirement. Freshman Rep. Elaine Luria (D–Norfolk) also lives here and may also try her luck here although she may not be favored to win the primary in this VRA district. She may choose to run in a neighboring district instead. Nevertheless, this seat is Safe D.
VA-03: Richmond
This majority-minority district includes the core of the Richmond metropolitan area. Of course, Virginia’s capital, Richmond, dominates this district. Sen. Tim Kaine (D–Richmond) is a constituent of this district. It is currently 47% White and 40% Black. The district has a PVI of D+14 and Clinton carried it 64-31. As with VA-02, two incumbents live here, Donald McEachin (D–Richmond), and Abigail Spanberger (D–Glen Allen). With a black-dominated primary electorate, McEachin should be favored while Spanberger, like Luria, may run in a different district. And like VA-02, this seat is Safe D.
VA-04: Virginia Beach – Tidewater
This area covers Virginia’s southern tidewater area anchored by Virginia Beach. The district features the Great Dismal Swamp. The district is 61% White and 27% Black. This R+3 district narrowly went for Trump 49-45. No incumbents live in this district. However, it’s more likely that Luria is the only one who will run here as most of her constituents in Virginia Beach live here. On the Republican side, former Rep. Scott Taylor (R–Virginia Beach) could run here and hope that the right-trending areas outside of Virginia Beach and even his swingy hometown could carry him to victory. On a WATN, former Rep. Randy Forbes (R–Chesapeake) could also try to run as this district is very similar to the one he represented for 16 years in congress before he carpetbagged to VA-02 due to redistricting and lost the primary to Taylor in 2016. For now, this district may be Lean D for Luria but it should be Tossup in a more neutral environment.
VA-05 southern central Virginia
This rural district reverts to its pre-90s shape and it spans the southern areas of Virginia’s share of the Piedmont plateau. The district is anchored by Lynchburg to the west, Danville to the south, and suburban Richmond’s Chesterfield to the east. It is the location of Appomattox Court House, where the last battle of the American Civil War took place, and where Robert Lee surrendered to HUG, Ulysses Grant. It is also where Jerry Falwell’s contentious Liberty University is located. Racially, the district is 70% White and 24% Black. It has a PVI of R+12 and Trump won it 58-37. If he goes on to win this November, Bob Good (R–Lynchburg) should be favored to win the general election in this district. Incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman (R–Nellysford) could also wager a rematch with Good here. Safe R.
VA-06: Shenandoah Valley
This scenic district is generally coextensive with the Shenandoah Valley. Roanoke is located at its southern end. The district is 82% White and 10% Black. Politically, it has a PVI of R+13 and Trump won it 59-35. Ben Clive (R–Lexington) lives here and is safe for reelection. Safe R.
VA-07: northern central Virginia
Like VA-05, this district goes back to something similar to its pre-90s configuration in northern central Virginia. The district includes Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, and the western area of Loudoun. To my surprise, the district now includes Leesburg due to the rapid growth of NOVA. The three suburban districts around DC have grown so much that it needs to contract this decade. Thus, the area around Leesburg is now in this district. To compensate for that, areas to the east of Charlottesville and south of Fredericksburg have to be excised from this district. Of course, the University of Virginia and the Monticello are located here.
The district is 69% White and 14% Black. It is so nice, it is politically a swing district with a PVI of R+2 and Clinton very narrowly won it 47-46. Jennifer Wexton (D–Leesburg) actually lives here but unless she wants to face competitive elections, she would almost certainly run in VA-10. Spanberger could just run here since it contains a small portion of her current district. However, Tom Perriello (D – Charlottesville) could also stage a comeback here. On the other hand, George Allen could also try to retread here in this district that’s like the one he represented for a partial term before it was dismantled in 1992. Any local politician could also step up here. Either way, this district should be Tossup.
VA-08: Arlington, Alexandria & eastern Fairfax
This beltway district covers former DC areas of Arlington and Alexandria and eastern communities of adjacent Fairfax County. This district is the location of the Pentagon, Arlington National Cemetery, and Mount Vernon. Sen. Mark Warner (D–Alexandria) is a resident of the district. It is 51% White and 20% Hispanic. The district has the strongest lean towards the Democratic Party in the state. It has a PVI of D+22 and Clinton carried it 73-20. Don Beyer (D–Alexandria) will coast to reelection here, provided he wins his primaries. He is also old enough to call it quits if he faces a strong primary challenger. Safe D.
VA-09: Southwestern Virginia
This district covers Virginia’s share of the Appalachia. Blacksburg is here and the district is home to Virginia Tech. This district is monolithically white at 89% of the population identifying as such. This ancestrally Democrat but Trumpy seat behaved politically like its neighbor to the north, West Virginia. It is now the most Republican seat in the state, with a PVI of R+20 and Trump carried it 69-27. Remember, this is the seat that regularly sent Rep. Rick Boucher (D–Abingdon) for three decades. As late as 2008, Boucher was unopposed here and Warner won here 63-36! Warner also won this district in his prior gubernatorial and senate runs in 2001 and 1996, respectively. Well, the opposite is happening in NOVA. Oh, how times have changed. Anyway, the guy who defeated Boucher in 2010, Morgan Griffith (R–Salem) is now the one who is unopposed this year, and he would continue to have safe reelections. Safe R.
VA-10: Prince William & Eastern Loudoun
This majority-minority suburban district covers, like what the district’s name shows, Prince William County and eastern Loudoun County. Manassas is in the district. This diverse district is 44% White, 22% Hispanic, 20% Asian, and 17% Black. It has a PVI of D+9 and Clinton won it 59-35. Even if she lives outside the district, Wexton could also say that this district is the one most similar to her current one and run here. The Democratic nominee would be safe for his or her elections here. Safe D.
VA-11: Fairfax
This suburban district is confined within Fairfax. It is 57% White, 23% Asian, and 12% Hispanic. The district has a PVI of D+11 and it voted for Clinton 62-31. Gerry Connolly (D–Mantua) lives here and is safe for reelection. Safe D.
VA DRA Analytics Ratings:
Proportionality: 93. Splitting: 65, Compactness: 47, Minority: 71, Competitiveness: 24.
WEST VIRGINIA
West Virginia will lose a seat and will have two districts left. The state is almost monolithic white with 92% identifying as such. This ancestrally Democratic but very Trumpy state has a PVI of R+19 with Trump dominating here 69-26. And as per custom, there will be no county splits. There is no 2016 Presidential election data in DRA for this state.
WV-01: northern West Virginia
This district stretches from West Virginia’s share of the Rust Belt area around Wheeling to the growing residential communities of West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle and Potomac Highlands regions. It is 92% white and it has a PVI of R+19. Representatives David McKinley (R–Wheeling) and carpetbagger Alex Mooney (R–Charles Town) both live here. McKinley may be old enough to retire although he may still run here in this district which is more similar to his than that of Mooney’s. Safe R.
WV-02: southern West Virginia
This district covers West Virginia’s capital, Charleston, and the coalfields. The district is home to Sens. Joe Manchin (D-Charleston) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-Charleston), and Gov. Jim Justice (D→R-Lewisburg) who owns The Greenbrier. The district is 92% white and it has a PVI of R+20. Carol Miller (R–Huntington) would be safe here as long as the Republican shift is sustained. Safe R.
WV DRA Analytics Ratings:
Proportionality: 0. Splitting: 100, Compactness: 37, Minority: 0, Competitiveness: 0.
That’s it for now. As a bonus for reaching the end of this post, I give you a sneak peek of the map I made of a 52-seat California.
Next:Part 2 — GA, NC, SC